A Spatial Perspective of Birth Delay in Croatia: Is Rural Population Decline a Limiting Factor of National Fertility Rates?

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to explore urban-rural
differences in fertility levels and timing in Croatia, and to
explore the spatial evolution of birth delay. Data from 556
local units at three time points were used. The units were
classified into cities, towns and suburbs, and rural areas. For
comparison, data from Croatian regions and European
countries were utilised. The research is based on descriptive
statistics, spatial statistics, and geovisualisations. A specific
methodological framework relying on the ratio of age-
specific fertility rates of older and younger age groups was
employed to monitor birth timing. In the period 2001–2011,
urban-rural fertility level differences decreased due to
increased births in urban areas at older ages. In the period
2011–2021, with the rise of later births in rural areas,
differences increased again. The Zagreb region, cities, Istria,
the Croatian Littoral, and Dalmatia lead in later births.
Urban-rural differences in cohort fertility are greater than
those in period fertility. Further shifting towards reducing the
proportion of rural population could gradually have a
negative impact on the national fertility level.